Thursday, November 6, 2008

The Case For Statistics (Like My Endorsement Is Required)

In the days leading up to the election, T was calm and confident. The polls were good! Intrade had it in the bag! And I, on the other hand, was an f-ing wreck. I'd read Politico, Huff Po, The Daily Beast, 538, and Gawker all day and then watch Colbert, Jon Stewart, Rachel Maddow, and the best election team on zee television at night. Now, part of this stems from the fact that I'm an impatient person who just wants things to happen, dammit, no matter how bad that thing's gonna be. But it's also that I don't have nearly enough trust in numbers now that I spend my life in letters. But, alas, Nate Silver has renewed my faith. Check it:
Right now, Barack Obama has 63.7 million popular votes to John McCain's 56.3 million, whereas third party candidates have roughly a collective 1.6 million. That works out to 52.4 percent of the vote for Obama and 46.3 percent for McCain ... conspicuously close to our pre-election estimates of 52.3 percent for Obama and 46.2 percent for McCain.
This was as of last night, and so every last vote hadn't been tallied, but...yah. Sold to the girl in the orange sequins blog.

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